When NBA free agency rolls around this July, the most important offseason storylines will once again belong to LeBron James.
With eight consecutive trips to the NBA Finals under his belt, the highly coveted free agent is seen as the only sure-fire way to move into the title conversation next season. Sadly for those not named the Lakers, Cavaliers, 76ers and Rockets, picking up James is about as likely as the Wisconsin football team losing to Minnesota.
Instead, other NBA teams will have to pick from the remaining talent pool of free agents to move the needle. One free agent who will likely show up on many wish lists, albeit with a big question mark next to his name: Milwaukee Bucks forward Jabari Parker.
Next week, the 23-year-old Parker finds himself in the very unenviable position of entering restricted free agency for the first time after having his young career derailed by not one but two torn left ACLs. In four seasons, the former No. 2 overall pick has averaged 15.3 points per game, but has played only 183 out of a possible 328 games. At his best, Parker is a handful for opposing defenses and a reliable 3-point shooter (38.3% in 2017) to help space the floor for All-NBA teammate Giannis Antetokounmpo. But the fact is he hasn’t been at his best very often.
The uncertainty surrounding Parker’s future health makes his value on the free agent market hard to assess. The Bucks had the opportunity to re-sign him last fall, but elected to let Parker head for free agency after the two sides couldn’t reach an agreement on a contract extension.
According to ESPN, the deal Parker was offered in October was worth an estimated $54 million over three years (a figure Parker has since denied). But sources indicate Parker’s camp still feels he is worth something in the ballpark of a max contract extension, à la what fellow 2014 draft pick Andrew Wiggins received from the Timberwolves.
After having returned for only 31 games this season, the path to a new contract with the Bucks seems even more doubtful. By many accounts, Parker isn’t a good fit for a Bucks team that depends on its strong defense to generate offense. During this year’s playoffs, in fact, Parker’s lackluster defense was so bad that it played him out of the lineup during key stretches of the Bucks’ opening round matchup against the Boston Celtics.
Against quick wings like Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum, Parker couldn’t stay in front of them:
And against big men like Al Horford and Greg Monroe, Parker was pushed aside with ease: In all likelihood, whether Parker returns to the Bucks may come down to what other organizations are willing to offer him. A host of teams — including the Jazz, Kings, Mavericks and his hometown Chicago Bulls — seem poised to pursue Parker in the coming weeks. Parker is still young (only 23, remember) and he is a borderline All-Star candidate if he can regain his 2016-17 form. But in a league that increasingly values low-risk, low-commitment contracts, Parker may find that his injury-riddled past makes him a poor candidate for a large contract no matter his potential.Despite all of the contract drama last fall, Parker’s most likely scenario might still be a return to the Bucks. Unless another team is willing to throw caution to the wind and pay Parker upwards of $17 million per year, the Bucks can still choose to match any contract he is offered and bring back a talented offensive weapon for a reasonable price.
Whatever decision is made, this moment is quickly shaping up to be a defining one in the Bucks’ quest for progress in the Eastern Conference playoff race. Milwaukee’s core is quickly moving into its peak years and the clock is already ticking on Antetokounpo’s four-year, $100 million contract.
Make the right decision and the Bucks could find themselves battling with the Celtics and 76ers for a Finals berth for years to come. Make the wrong decision and the Bucks may soon find themselves losing ground and Giannis losing patience.
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