{"id":19005,"date":"2020-03-19T10:42:34","date_gmt":"2020-03-19T15:42:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.thebozho.com\/?p=19005"},"modified":"2020-03-20T14:18:22","modified_gmt":"2020-03-20T19:18:22","slug":"espn-simulation-march-madness-2020","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.thebozho.com\/espn-simulation-march-madness-2020\/","title":{"rendered":"Guess who won an ESPN analyst&#8217;s simulation of March Madness?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The Wisconsin men\u2019s basketball team experienced a, umm, <a href=\"https:\/\/madison.com\/wsj\/sports\/college\/basketball\/men\/the-events-that-led-to-erik-helland-s-ouster-as\/article_cc9bfae1-a8a3-5b05-a6dd-72922f1123e2.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">weird two weeks<\/a> in late January and early February. But it apparently set the stage, because Bucky won eight straight to end the regular season to earn a share of the Big Ten regular-season title and the top seed in the conference\u2019s tournament.<\/p>\n<p>Then the coronavirus pandemic shut down the sports world, canceling both the Big Ten and NCAA tournaments.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet tw-align-center\">\n<p dir=\"ltr\" lang=\"en\">NCAA cancels remaining winter and spring championships: <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/qzKAS4McEI\">https:\/\/t.co\/qzKAS4McEI<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/G6XreZx35E\">pic.twitter.com\/G6XreZx35E<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 NCAA (@NCAA) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/NCAA\/status\/1238197201928667136?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">March 12, 2020<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>So with no sportsball to entertain on what would\u2019ve been Thursday\u2019s opening round of March Madness, a few websites have run some simulations and projections about what might have been. For example, FiveThirtyEight highlighted the teams that <a href=\"https:\/\/fivethirtyeight.com\/features\/the-mens-ncaa-teams-that-might-have-given-us-march-magic\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">might have provided some magic<\/a> (and madness) while SportsLine simulated <a href=\"https:\/\/www.sportsline.com\/cbb\/news\/sportsline-2020-ncaa-tournament-simulations-dayton-road-to-the-championship\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">mid-major darling Dayton\u2019s potential road<\/a> to the school\u2019s first title.<\/p>\n<p>But by far the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.espn.com\/mens-college-basketball\/story\/_\/id\/28915817\/bpi-projects-how-2020-ncaa-tournament-played-out\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">kindest projection<\/a> (to Wisconsin at least) came from ESPN\u2019s Seth Walder, who used his colleague Joe Lunardi\u2019s final projected bracket paired with ESPN\u2019s own Basketball Power Index.<\/p>\n<p>Walder simulated the tournament thousands of times, but to mimic the true nature of a one-and-done bracket he published the results of just a single simulation. And naturally the chosen one (No. 2,020) saw Wisconsin \u2014 with less than a 1% chance to cut down the nets \u2014 beat BYU in the tourney final for Bucky\u2019s second national title, and first since 1941.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet tw-align-center\">\n<p dir=\"ltr\" lang=\"en\">Print the shirts. Hang the banner.<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/espn?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@ESPN<\/a> BPI National Champs\u203c\ufe0f <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/ipRxItDTzx\">pic.twitter.com\/ipRxItDTzx<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Wisconsin Basketball (@BadgerMBB) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/BadgerMBB\/status\/1240317384486985729?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">March 18, 2020<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><br \/>\nIf you\u2019re a college hoops fan or general fan of March Madness, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.espn.com\/mens-college-basketball\/story\/_\/id\/28915817\/bpi-projects-how-2020-ncaa-tournament-played-out\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">read the whole breakdown<\/a>. It\u2019s a fun \u201cwhat-if,\u201d and you might have some time on your hands.<\/p>\n<p>This was just <a href=\"https:\/\/collegebasketball.nbcsports.com\/2020\/03\/17\/simulating-the-2020-ncaa-tournament-who-would-be-the-real-national-champion\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">one<\/a> of <a href=\"https:\/\/247sports.com\/college\/ohio-state\/Article\/Simulated-NCAA-tournament-Ohio-State-Buckeyes-win-national-championship-145122339\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">many<\/a> simulations <a href=\"https:\/\/bustingbrackets.com\/2020\/03\/16\/march-madness-results-simulated-2020-ncaa-tournament\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">out there<\/a>, and it should be noted that the data set anyone worked with is incomplete; every major conference tournament was either outright canceled or called off after only a few games were played.<\/p>\n<p>But let\u2019s look at Wisconsin\u2019s Midwest Region path to a simulated title, with Lunardi\u2019s seeds in parentheses.<span class=\"\" style=\"display:block;clear:both;height: 0px;padding-top: 10px;border-top-width:0px;border-bottom-width:0px;\"><\/span>\n<h3>First round: (4) Wisconsin over (13) North Texas<\/h3>\n<p>This tracks with the final <a href=\"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">KenPom ratings<\/a>, which projects Bucky as about an 8\u00bd-point favorite.<\/p>\n<h3>Second round: (4) Wisconsin over (12) Liberty<\/h3>\n<p>The Badgers get a boost from Liberty\u2019s upset of Auburn in the first round. The Flames are in the same rating range as North Texas, so this also tracks.<\/p>\n<h3>Sweet 16: (4) Wisconsin over (9) Marquette<\/h3>\n<p>All-Wisconsin Sweet 16, baby! Given that Wisconsin beat Marquette by 16 at home early in the season, a Badgers win makes sense \u2014 especially since the Golden Eagles lost six of their final seven regular-season games.<\/p>\n<h3>Elite Eight: (4) Wisconsin over (3) Duke<\/h3>\n<p>Not improbable, given that Duke had some bad losses down the stretch and a 3-3 record in the final three weeks of the regular season. Call it revenge for the 2015 title game loss.<\/p>\n<h3>Final Four: (4) Wisconsin over (4) Maryland<\/h3>\n<p>Bucky squeaked by the Terrapins at home back in January, and the simulation called for another late three-pointer from Brad Davison to give UW the edge. Maryland did struggle down the stretch, losing three of its last five \u2014 but who knows what kind of boost, or drag, the Big Ten tourney could have provided either team.<\/p>\n<h3>National Championship: (4) Wisconsin over (6) BYU<\/h3>\n<p>Both the Badgers (+18.95) and the Cougars (+20.68) are close in KenPom\u2019s total adjusted efficiency margin, with Wisconsin better on defense and BYU better on offense. But personally, I don\u2019t see the NCAA honchos signing off on a Wisconsin-BYU national championship, simply from a ratings\/blueblood standpoint.<span class=\"\" style=\"display:block;clear:both;height: 0px;padding-top: 20px;border-top-width:0px;border-bottom-width:0px;\"><\/span>\n<p>So this virtual reality saw the Badgers beat Duke on a buzzer-beating three from D\u2019Mitrik Trice and more Davison heroics to defeat Maryland, all before a very interesting final against BYU, which itself had only about a 2% chance to reach the final, per ESPN\u2019s estimation.<\/p>\n<p>Try not to think about <a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=uEE3ycDH9_8\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">what might have been<\/a>. Or if you\u2019re stuck at home, go find a copy of <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/NCAA_Basketball_10\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">NCAA Basketball 10<\/a> and make it happen for video game real<\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"LITTLE TEXAS - What Might Have Been (Video)\" width=\"689\" height=\"517\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/uEE3ycDH9_8?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Wisconsin men\u2019s basketball team experienced a, umm, weird two weeks in late January and early February. But it apparently set the stage, because Bucky won eight straight to end [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":30,"featured_media":19012,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[5153],"tags":[1339,11947,3287,1341,79,586],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v18.3 (Yoast SEO v18.5.1) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Naturally, Wisconsin won ESPN&#039;s March Madness sim - The Bozho<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Let&#039;s take a look at the Badgers&#039; path to a simulated title, including a buzzer-beater over Duke and and more Brad Davison heroics to defeat Maryland.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.thebozho.com\/espn-simulation-march-madness-2020\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Guess who won ESPN\u2019s March Madness simulation?\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"What might have been.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.thebozho.com\/espn-simulation-march-madness-2020\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"The Bozho\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/thebozho\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2020-03-19T15:42:34+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2020-03-20T19:18:22+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.thebozho.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/Badgers2020-fb.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1200\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"630\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"Guess who won ESPN\u2019s March Madness simulation?\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"What might have been.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.thebozho.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/Badgers2020-tw.jpg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@thebozho\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@thebozho\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Clint Robus\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Organization\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.thebozho.com\/#organization\",\"name\":\"The Bozho\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.thebozho.com\/\",\"sameAs\":[\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/thebozho\/\",\"http:\/\/instagram.com\/thebozho\",\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/thebozho\"],\"logo\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.thebozho.com\/#logo\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.thebozho.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/04\/logo.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.thebozho.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/04\/logo.png\",\"width\":600,\"height\":280,\"caption\":\"The Bozho\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.thebozho.com\/#logo\"}},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.thebozho.com\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.thebozho.com\/\",\"name\":\"The Bozho\",\"description\":\"Seeing things. 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