{"id":6572,"date":"2017-11-27T20:45:37","date_gmt":"2017-11-28T02:45:37","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.thebozho.com\/?p=6572"},"modified":"2018-08-20T16:23:00","modified_gmt":"2018-08-20T21:23:00","slug":"packers-must-run-table-again","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.thebozho.com\/packers-must-run-table-again\/","title":{"rendered":"The Green Bay Packers need a “Run the Table 2”"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Green Bay Packers can\u2019t afford another loss.<\/p>\n

According to The Upshot\u2019s playoff simulator<\/a>, the team now has about a 5% chance of playing in January. FiveThirtyEight<\/a> has it at 4%, and ESPN\u2019s Power Football Index<\/a> calculates 2.5%.<\/p>\n

The Upshot was The New York Times\u2019 data-driven replacement in 2014 for data-driven FiveThirtyEight after Nate Silver relaunched the latter at ESPN. So the Worldwide Leader has two different prediction forecasts? \u00af\\_(\u30c4)_\/\u00af<\/p>\n

Let\u2019s focus on The Upshot\u2019s \u201cPlayoff Machine,\u201d which returned for a fourth season in early October, just a few days before Aaron Rodgers\u2019 season-interrupting (season-ending?) collarbone injury.<\/p>\n

At that point there were 766 sexdecillion<\/a> ways the NFL season could end. That\u2019s 766 followed by 51 zeros. Six weeks later, there are now only 2 septillion<\/a> possible results, or 2 followed by 42 zeros. Much fewer but still quite a lot!<\/p>\n

But luckily the interactive Playoff Machine does the heavy, time-consuming lifting. You can choose the outcome of any game (or games) and The Upshot bots simulate the rest, thousands of times.<\/p>\n

Green Bay has five games left: Tampa Bay, at Cleveland, at Carolina, Minnesota, and at Detroit.<\/p>\n

\"Packers<\/p>\n

A win on Sunday against the 4-7 Buccaneers keeps hope alive (around 8%) but a loss basically kills it (1%).<\/p>\n

\"Packers<\/p>\n

Even winning out after a Tampa loss means the Packers would have no better than about a 1 in 4 chance (26%).<\/p>\n

Aaron Rodgers is eligible to return for the Week 15 game at Carolina. He made some throws in pre-game warmups on Sunday night, and his rehab seems to be on track. So what if the Packers win their next two games?<\/p>\n

\"Packers<\/p>\n

Beating the Bucs and the winless Browns would only put the Packers at about a 13% chance of extending the season.<\/p>\n

\"Packers<\/p>\n

It was one year ago this week<\/a> that Rodgers suggested the 4-6 Packers could \u201crun the table,\u201d but this season\u2019s 5-6 team is 1-5 so far without him. It must not only match but somehow beat that famous feat<\/a>. And even then, at 90% it’s no sure thing.<\/p>\n

TL;DR… Run the Table 2: Improbable But Not Impossible<\/em>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The Green Bay Packers can\u2019t afford another loss. According to The Upshot\u2019s playoff simulator, the team now has about a 5% chance of playing in January. FiveThirtyEight has it at […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":6581,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[5153],"tags":[1115,132,133,134,79],"yoast_head":"\nThe 2017 Packers need a "Run the Table 2" | The Bozho<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"With a 5-6 record, Green Bay can\u2019t afford another loss. 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